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Dominant FC Krasnodar run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nizhny Novgorod.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-3 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.07 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.63 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.23 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 21% | Draw 32% | FC Krasnodar 47%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 47%, FC Krasnodar 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights