Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sovcombank Arena plays host to Nizhny Novgorod versus FC Rostov in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Nizhny Novgorod's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Rostov's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC Rostov away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Nizhny Novgorod. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC Rostov (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, FC Rostov have the stronger record — 6 wins to Nizhny Novgorod's 2, with 1 draw.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended Nizhny Novgorod 0–1 FC Rostov — a FC Rostov win.
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Nizhny Novgorod half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 42% versus FC Rostov 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 56% | FC Rostov 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.29 xG and FC Rostov 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.921 / defence 0.954 | FC Rostov attack 0.855 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.035. Data: built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 52 games and FC Rostov's last 52.
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 47% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 24%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 2.13 | Draw 3.49 | FC Rostov 4.10. Nizhny Novgorod hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record in our data (6 wins to 2), but Nizhny Novgorod carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nizhny Novgorod if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 home games and FC Rostov's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nizhny Novgorod 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Sovcombank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 47% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.29 / FC Rostov 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.921 / def 0.954 | FC Rostov attack 0.855 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FC Rostov xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Sovcombank Arena.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Sovcombank Arena.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 47% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 0.92x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.85x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 52 games and FC Rostov's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.49
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.13
0.84
FC Rostov xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.84 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 8D 30L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, FC Rostov sit at 1.17 PPG from 52 outings (15W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 1.17 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nizhny Novgorod's home form reads 8W 6D 11L across their last 25 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Rostov have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 25 away games (6W 7D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.12 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 14W 8D 30L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 15W 16D 21L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or FC Rostov away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Rostov have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won FC Rostov 4-0 Nizhny Novgorod on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
7
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nizhny Novgorod have won 2, FC Rostov have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 48%, FC Rostov 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 40% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 36% of games; FC Rostov in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 52% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 40% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 68% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Rostov defy the odds to beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.29 xG and FC Rostov 0.84 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against FC Rostov attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 47% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 24%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a FC Rostov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 56%, FC Rostov 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Rostov's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 0.96 PPG, FC Rostov 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.