Nizhny Novgorod 1-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Rostov at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Nizhny Novgorod plays host to Nizhny Novgorod versus FC Rostov in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod's home record at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season.
FC Rostov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 1.10 for FC Rostov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nizhny Novgorod lead 2W to 4W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with FC Rostov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Nizhny Novgorod half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 49% versus FC Rostov 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 46% | FC Rostov 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.59 xG and FC Rostov 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.874 / defence 1.393 | FC Rostov attack 0.936 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.243. FC Rostov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Nizhny Novgorod's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Nizhny Novgorod games / 41 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 36% | Draw 27% | FC Rostov 37%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | FC Rostov 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: Nizhny Novgorod 60% | FC Rostov 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 36% | Draw 27% | FC Rostov 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.59 / FC Rostov 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.874 / def 1.393 | FC Rostov attack 0.936 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.62
FC Rostov xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Nizhny Novgorod 1 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 36% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov?
Record (6 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 2W | Draws 0 | FC Rostov 4W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. FC Rostov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 0.87x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.94x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.75
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
3.21
1.62
FC Rostov xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.62 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 7D 22L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Rostov sit at 1.34 PPG from 41 outings (15W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 1.34 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nizhny Novgorod's home form reads 8W 3D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Rostov have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (4W 3D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Rostov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nizhny Novgorod come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.37 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 12W 7D 22L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or FC Rostov away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.35 PPG; FC Rostov away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Rostov go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
7
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 2, FC Rostov have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 50%, FC Rostov 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 60% (FC Rostov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Rostov in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play FC Rostov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 50% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Nizhny Novgorod's matches and 60% of FC Rostov's.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 12, as Nizhny Novgorod and FC Rostov drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.59 xG and FC Rostov 1.62 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.87 / defence 1.39 against FC Rostov attack 0.94 / defence 1.36, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 36% | Draw 27% | FC Rostov 37%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 46%, FC Rostov 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 1.05 PPG, FC Rostov 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.