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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 25, as Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.22 xG and Dynamo 1.42 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Dynamo attack 1.36 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 32% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 42%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 56%, Dynamo 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights