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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Nizhny Novgorod edge out Akron 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nizhny Novgorod beat Akron 2-1 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.39 xG and Akron 1.18 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Akron attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 38% | Draw 33% | Akron 29%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 60%, Akron 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Akron's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 0.95 PPG, Akron 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights