Lokomotiv 1-3 Khimki – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Lokomotiv (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lokomotiv face Khimki.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Lokomotiv host Khimki at RZD Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Lokomotiv have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lokomotiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lokomotiv at RZD Arena this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RZD Arena. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Lokomotiv are significantly better at RZD Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Khimki's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.

On current form, Lokomotiv have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Lokomotiv, 1 for Khimki and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Khimki winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Lokomotiv in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Khimki in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokomotiv 56% versus Khimki 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokomotiv 62% | Khimki 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lokomotiv 2.23 xG and Khimki 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokomotiv attack 1.138 / defence 0.910 | Khimki attack 0.765 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.238. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Lokomotiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Lokomotiv games / 16 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lokomotiv 66% | Draw 23% | Khimki 11%. Fair-value odds: Lokomotiv 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Khimki 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lokomotiv (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokomotiv at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Lokomotiv 40% | Khimki 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights