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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokomotiv and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Lokomotiv and FC Krasnodar drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.17 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.30 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.25 / defence 0.91 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.35 / defence 0.69, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 32% | Draw 31% | FC Krasnodar 38%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 53%, FC Krasnodar 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokomotiv's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lokomotiv 1.84 PPG, FC Krasnodar 2.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights