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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.04 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.17 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lokomotiv beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. CSKA Moscow outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.13 / defence 0.69, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 30% | Draw 34% | CSKA Moscow 36%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 50%, CSKA Moscow 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokomotiv's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lokomotiv 1.76 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights