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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokomotiv and Akhmat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Lokomotiv and Akhmat drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.70 xG and Akhmat 0.94 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Akhmat outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Akhmat attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 55% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 20%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 55%, Akhmat 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokomotiv's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Akhmat's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights