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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokomotiv and Akhmat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Lokomotiv and Akhmat drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.57 xG and Akhmat 1.18 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Akhmat attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 43% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 25%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 53%, Akhmat 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokomotiv's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Akhmat's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights