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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Krylia Sovetov and Zenit share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Krylia Sovetov and Zenit drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 0.98 xG and Zenit 1.61 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Zenit attack 1.13 / defence 0.75, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 21% | Draw 28% | Zenit 50%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 48%, Zenit 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Zenit's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights