Krylia Sovetov 4-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Spartak Moscow travel to Solidarnost Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 6W 3D 1L at Solidarnost Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Krylia Sovetov are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Krylia Sovetov register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Spartak Moscow in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 3 for Spartak Moscow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Spartak Moscow trading profile (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 64% and Spartak Moscow 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 59% | Spartak Moscow 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 2.23 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.267 / defence 1.049 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.165 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.150. Krylia Sovetov carry an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Krylia Sovetov games / 39 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 20% | Spartak Moscow 24%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Spartak Moscow 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Spartak Moscow lead the H2H ledger, but Krylia Sovetov carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 60% | Spartak Moscow 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 20% | Spartak Moscow 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Krylia Sovetov 2.23 / Spartak Moscow 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.267 / def 1.049 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.165 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Spartak Moscow xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 4 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 56% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Record (4 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 0 | Spartak Moscow 3W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.27x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
56%
1.78
20%
4.97
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.64
1.41
Spartak Moscow xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
11%
9.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
3%
39.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.41 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 13W 11D 15L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 20W 10D 9L from 39 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 4D 7L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.90 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Spartak Moscow in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 20W 10D 9L in their last 39 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.67 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
7
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Spartak Moscow have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 56%, Spartak Moscow 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Krylia Sovetov) and 56% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Spartak Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 72% of Spartak Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 56% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Krylia Sovetov run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Spartak Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Spartak Moscow 4-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.23 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.41 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spartak Moscow landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.27 / defence 1.05 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.17 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 20% | Spartak Moscow 24%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 59%, Spartak Moscow 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.