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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Krylia Sovetov and Rubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov and Rubin finished level at 1-1 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.17 xG and Rubin 1.20 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Rubin attack 0.99 / defence 1.27, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 57% | Draw 24% | Rubin 18%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 58%, Rubin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Rubin's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.21 PPG, Rubin 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights