Krylia Sovetov 1-0 FC Sochi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sochi at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host FC Sochi at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Premier League matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L L D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sochi — All Games: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.25 PPG. Last five: L W W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.50. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. FC Sochi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Sochi are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.25 vs 0.25), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
FC Sochi in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 75% versus FC Sochi 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 50% | FC Sochi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 0.87 xG and FC Sochi 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.791 / defence 1.238 | FC Sochi attack 0.786 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 1.372. Krylia Sovetov's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Krylia Sovetov games / 4 FC Sochi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 23% | Draw 30% | FC Sochi 47%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | FC Sochi 2.13. FC Sochi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sochi as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sochi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 75% | FC Sochi 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 23% | Draw 30% | FC Sochi 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Krylia Sovetov 0.87 / FC Sochi 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.791 / def 1.238 | FC Sochi attack 0.786 / def 1.116 | league avg home 0.982 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Sochi xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 0 FC Sochi.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 23% chance of winning, FC Sochi a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D. FC Sochi (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Krylia Sovetov's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against FC Sochi's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sochi's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
23%
4.28
30%
3.35
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.20
1.33
FC Sochi xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
16.25
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.33 for FC Sochi, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sochi, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 1L across 4 games — 2.25 PPG, with L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Sochi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Sochi by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Sochi are on 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; FC Sochi in 25%.
Defensively: FC Sochi in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
FC Sochi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while FC Sochi have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Krylia Sovetov or FC Sochi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FC Sochi in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting FC Sochi specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
1
FC Sochi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi?
From 8 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 7, FC Sochi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when FC Sochi 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 75%, FC Sochi 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Krylia Sovetov) and 50% (FC Sochi).
On the defensive side: FC Sochi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC Sochi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play FC Sochi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 25% of FC Sochi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Sochi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 50% of FC Sochi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC Sochi tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Sochi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Krylia Sovetov defy the odds to beat FC Sochi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat FC Sochi 1-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 0.87 xG and FC Sochi 1.33 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Sochi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.79 / defence 1.24 against FC Sochi attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 23% | Draw 30% | FC Sochi 47%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Krylia Sovetov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 50%, FC Sochi 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sochi's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sochi arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Krylia Sovetov conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sochi managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.