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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lokomotiv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat Lokomotiv 2-0 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.46 xG and Lokomotiv 1.17 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lokomotiv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Lokomotiv attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 44% | Draw 26% | Lokomotiv 30%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 48%, Lokomotiv 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Lokomotiv's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights