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Dominant FC Krasnodar run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat Krylia Sovetov 0-6 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.10 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.35 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.35 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.17 / defence 0.73, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 30% | FC Krasnodar 41%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 49%, FC Krasnodar 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights