Krylia Sovetov 0-0 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host Khimki at Solidarnost Samara Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov at Solidarnost Samara Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Khimki — All Games: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.78 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khimki have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Krylia Sovetov at 1.10 PPG versus Khimki's 0.78. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Khimki 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Khimki in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 33% versus Khimki 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 44% | Khimki 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.80 xG and Khimki 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.916 / defence 1.156 | Khimki attack 0.840 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.251. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Krylia Sovetov games / 9 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Draw 26% | Khimki 24%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Khimki 4.17. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Khimki 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Draw 26% | Khimki 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.80 / Khimki 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.916 / def 1.156 | Khimki attack 0.840 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Khimki xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 0 Khimki.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 50% chance of winning, Khimki a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Khimki?
Record (4 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 2 | Khimki 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Khimki in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Khimki (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.92x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.80
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.02
1.21
Khimki xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
4%
25.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.21 for Khimki, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 1D 5L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Krylia Sovetov on 1.11 PPG, Khimki on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Khimki have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.00 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Khimki in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Khimki have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Khimki away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.50 PPG; Khimki away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, Khimki have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Khimki 1-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Khimki?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Khimki 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Krylia Sovetov and 75% for Khimki. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khimki in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Krylia Sovetov's matches and 75% of Khimki's.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Khimki tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Khimki in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Krylia Sovetov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Krylia Sovetov and Khimki drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.80 xG and Khimki 1.21 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Khimki landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Khimki attack 0.84 / defence 1.45, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 50% | Draw 26% | Khimki 24%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 44%, Khimki 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khimki's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.11 PPG, Khimki 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.