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Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Rostov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat FC Rostov 2-0 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.04 xG and FC Rostov 1.20 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Rostov landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 1.22 against FC Rostov attack 0.91 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 30% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 38%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 47%, FC Rostov 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Rostov's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.00 PPG, FC Rostov 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights