Krylia Sovetov 1-3 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Rostov at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to Solidarnost Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 26 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Solidarnost Samara Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FC Rostov (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Rostov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Rostov away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.40 for FC Rostov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Krylia Sovetov lead 2W to 4W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Rostov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 61% versus FC Rostov 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 61% | FC Rostov 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG and FC Rostov 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.800 / defence 1.163 | FC Rostov attack 0.954 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.347. Data: 31 Krylia Sovetov games / 31 FC Rostov games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 26% | Draw 30% | FC Rostov 44%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | FC Rostov 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 50% | FC Rostov 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 26% | Draw 30% | FC Rostov 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.11 / FC Rostov 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.800 / def 1.163 | FC Rostov attack 0.954 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FC Rostov xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 July 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 3 FC Rostov.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 26% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
Record (6 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 0 | FC Rostov 4W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.80x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.95x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
26%
3.87
30%
3.29
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.61
1.50
FC Rostov xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.50 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 11W 8D 12L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Rostov's form line: 12W 8D 11L from 31 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Rostov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.42 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Rostov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.39 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 8D 12L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 12W 8D 11L in their last 31 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or FC Rostov away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.73 PPG; FC Rostov away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Krylia Sovetov have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 5-1 on 5 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
6
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, FC Rostov have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Krylia Sovetov 2-0 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 53%, FC Rostov 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Krylia Sovetov) and 53% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 27% of games; FC Rostov in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play FC Rostov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 53% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 53% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Krylia Sovetov 1-3 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG and FC Rostov 1.50 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against FC Rostov attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 26% | Draw 30% | FC Rostov 44%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 61%, FC Rostov 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.32 PPG, FC Rostov 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.