Krylia Sovetov 5-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Krylia Sovetov face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Rostov (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Rostov away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.20 for FC Rostov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and FC Rostov's last 10 away games) — Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Rostov in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, FC Rostov edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2022, ended Krylia Sovetov 1–3 FC Rostov — a FC Rostov win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 59% and FC Rostov 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 53% | FC Rostov 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.73 xG and FC Rostov 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.061 / defence 1.078 | FC Rostov attack 0.972 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.382. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 32 games and FC Rostov's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 27% | FC Rostov 31%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.34 | Draw 3.75 | FC Rostov 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.73 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and FC Rostov's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Krylia Sovetov 32 games, FC Rostov 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 3 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 27% | FC Rostov 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.73 / FC Rostov 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.061 / def 1.078 | FC Rostov attack 0.972 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.45
FC Rostov xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Krylia Sovetov 5 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 3) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 43% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.06x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.97x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 32 games and FC Rostov's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.75
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.18
1.45
FC Rostov xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.45 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 9D 14L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
FC Rostov's form line: 16W 9D 7L from 32 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, FC Rostov are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 15 home games (4W 6D 5L).
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 6W 5D 4L from their last 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.59 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 75%.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 16W 9D 7L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or FC Rostov away?
FC Rostov's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 23 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Krylia Sovetov have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won Krylia Sovetov 5-1 FC Rostov on 5 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
6
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, FC Rostov have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2025: Krylia Sovetov 2-0 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 47%, FC Rostov 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Krylia Sovetov) and 60% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 73% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 60% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 73% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Krylia Sovetov run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Rostov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat FC Rostov 5-1 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.73 xG and FC Rostov 1.45 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against FC Rostov attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 27% | FC Rostov 31%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 53%, FC Rostov 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. FC Rostov (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.