Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host Dynamo at Samara Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Samara Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dynamo have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dynamo away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Dynamo's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Krylia Sovetov's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Dynamo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters against Krylia Sovetov's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dynamo have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dynamo in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 50% versus Dynamo 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 47% | Dynamo 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.29 xG and Dynamo 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.923 / defence 1.241 | Dynamo attack 0.919 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.292. Data: 36 Krylia Sovetov games / 36 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 39%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Dynamo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Dynamo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.29 / Dynamo 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.923 / def 1.241 | Dynamo attack 0.919 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Dynamo xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Samara Arena.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 31% chance of winning, Dynamo a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
Record (10 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 2 | Dynamo 7W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Dynamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.92) and Dynamo's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
31%
3.24
30%
3.36
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.76
1.47
Dynamo xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
11%
9.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.47 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 36 games, going 9W 11D 16L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dynamo sit at 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (15W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dynamo have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.64 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Dynamo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 11D 16L in their last 36 games (1.06 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 15W 10D 11L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Dynamo away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.59 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
7
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Dynamo have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Dynamo 0-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 53%, Dynamo 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Krylia Sovetov) and 53% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Dynamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 71% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 53% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.