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Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat Krylia Sovetov 2-3 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.25 xG and Dynamo 1.44 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Dynamo attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 30% | Draw 31% | Dynamo 39%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 51%, Dynamo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights