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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Krylia Sovetov run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Akron.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat Akron 4-1 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.80 xG and Akron 1.00 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against Akron attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 23% | Akron 21%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 48%, Akron 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Akron's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.02 PPG, Akron 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Akron (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights