Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Samara Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Akhmat (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Krylia Sovetov, 1.10 for Akhmat — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Akhmat in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 3W, Akhmat 4W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 54% versus Akhmat 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 49% | Akhmat 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.35 xG and Akhmat 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.025 / defence 1.216 | Akhmat attack 0.667 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.285. Data: 39 Krylia Sovetov games / 39 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 41% | Draw 34% | Akhmat 26%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Akhmat 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 70% | Akhmat 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 41% | Draw 34% | Akhmat 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.35 / Akhmat 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.025 / def 1.216 | Akhmat attack 0.667 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Akhmat xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Samara Arena.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 41% chance of winning, Akhmat a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Record (10 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 3W | Draws 3 | Akhmat 4W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Akhmat (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Krylia Sovetov's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.67x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
41%
2.46
34%
2.98
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.39
1.04
Akhmat xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.04 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 10W 13D 16L from 39 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 14L across 39 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.21 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 8W 7D 4L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 1W 10D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 10W 13D 16L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 11W 14D 14L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Akhmat away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.63 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
4
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Akhmat have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Akhmat 3-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 58%, Akhmat 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Krylia Sovetov) and 32% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Akhmat in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 58% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 32% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.