Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Krylia Sovetov face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Krylia Sovetov welcome Zenit to Samara Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 4W 4D 2L at Samara Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Zenit have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zenit's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Krylia Sovetov's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Zenit have the better historical record — 6 wins from 10 previous contests against 1 for Krylia Sovetov.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Zenit winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Zenit have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zenit in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 51% versus Zenit 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 49% | Zenit 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.00 xG and Zenit 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.018 / defence 1.237 | Zenit attack 1.227 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.312. Zenit's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Zenit have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Krylia Sovetov games / 37 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 17% | Draw 25% | Zenit 59%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Zenit 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 60% | Zenit 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 17% | Draw 25% | Zenit 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.00 / Zenit 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.018 / def 1.237 | Zenit attack 1.227 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Zenit (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Zenit xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Monday 2 November 2026 at Samara Arena.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 17% chance of winning, Zenit a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Record (10 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 3 | Zenit 6W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Zenit (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (1.02) and Zenit's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
17%
5.98
25%
4.06
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.00
1.99
Zenit xG
5.98
17%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
14%
7.33
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
2%
43.81
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.99 for Zenit, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 9W 12D 16L from 37 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 24W 8D 5L across 37 games — 2.16 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zenit, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 7W 7D 4L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zenit's away record stands at 10W 5D 3L across 18 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 1.81 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Zenit
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while Zenit have gone 24W 8D 5L in their last 37 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.56 PPG; Zenit away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Zenit in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zenit 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 56%, Zenit 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Krylia Sovetov) and 39% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zenit in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 33% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 39% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Zenit tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Zenit in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.