Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Krylia Sovetov face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Krylia Sovetov welcome Zenit to Solidarnost Arena in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Krylia Sovetov — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Krylia Sovetov have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Zenit have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Zenit's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Krylia Sovetov's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 60% of Zenit's (from Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and Zenit's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Zenit have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Krylia Sovetov.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Krylia Sovetov 1–3 Zenit — a Zenit win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Zenit have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Zenit in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 60% versus Zenit 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 58% | Zenit 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Krylia Sovetov surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Zenit have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.42 xG and Zenit 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.159 / defence 1.143 | Zenit attack 1.385 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.067. Zenit have an above-average attack rating of 1.385, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 50 games and Zenit's last 50.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Zenit 42%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.24 | Draw 3.72 | Zenit 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and Zenit's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 70% (last 10 home games) | Zenit 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Zenit 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.42 / Zenit 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.159 / def 1.143 | Zenit attack 1.385 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Zenit (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Zenit xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Zenit.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 31% chance of winning, Zenit a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Zenit will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (1.16) and Zenit's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 50 games and Zenit's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
31%
3.24
27%
3.72
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.11
1.69
Zenit xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
6%
17.56
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.69 for Zenit, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 16W 13D 21L from 50 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 6L across 50 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 10W 9D 6L from their last 25 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 14W 8D 3L across their last 25 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.26 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zenit in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Zenit
Blended
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Zenit (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Zenit have gone 33W 11D 6L in their last 50 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.56 PPG; Zenit away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Zenit in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Zenit have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won Krylia Sovetov 1-5 Zenit.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Zenit last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Krylia Sovetov 0-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 56%, Zenit 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Krylia Sovetov) and 44% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Zenit in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Zenit matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 52% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 44% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Zenit matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 68% of Zenit's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Zenit share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Krylia Sovetov and Zenit drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.42 xG and Zenit 1.69 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.16 / defence 1.14 against Zenit attack 1.39 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Zenit 42%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 58%, Zenit 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.