Krylia Sovetov 1-4 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dinamo Makhachkala make the trip to Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Samara Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Samara Arena than their overall form suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Krylia Sovetov, 1.50 for Dinamo Makhachkala — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 1W, Dinamo Makhachkala 3W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dinamo Makhachkala — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 48% versus Dinamo Makhachkala 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Krylia Sovetov 42% | Dinamo Makhachkala 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.52 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.980 / defence 1.015 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.976 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.273. Dinamo Makhachkala bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Krylia Sovetov games / 33 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Draw 32% | Dinamo Makhachkala 28%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Dinamo Makhachkala 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Dinamo Makhachkala 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Draw 32% | Dinamo Makhachkala 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.52 / Dinamo Makhachkala 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.980 / def 1.015 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.976 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 4 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 40% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Record (4 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 0 | Dinamo Makhachkala 3W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.98x the league average against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.98x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
40%
2.51
32%
3.12
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.78
1.26
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.26 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 33 games, going 8W 10D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dinamo Makhachkala sit at 1.12 PPG from 33 outings (9W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.12 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 7W 6D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dinamo Makhachkala have taken 0.69 points per game from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dinamo Makhachkala's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.79 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.69 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dinamo Makhachkala won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
4
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 5 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 1-4 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Dinamo Makhachkala 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Krylia Sovetov and 38% for Dinamo Makhachkala.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dinamo Makhachkala in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 38% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dinamo Makhachkala run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dinamo Makhachkala beat Krylia Sovetov 1-4 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.52 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.26 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 40% | Draw 32% | Dinamo Makhachkala 28%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Dinamo Makhachkala win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 42%, Dinamo Makhachkala 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.03 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dinamo Makhachkala win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.