Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baltika at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Baltika travel to Samara Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 August 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 4W 1D 5L at Samara Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baltika — All Games: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Baltika have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Baltika are 0.83 PPG ahead (2.33 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Krylia Sovetov register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baltika in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Baltika 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Baltika winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Baltika trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 67% and Baltika 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 33% | Baltika 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.25 xG and Baltika 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.048 / defence 0.936 | Baltika attack 1.109 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.253. Data: 33 Krylia Sovetov games / 3 Baltika games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 33% | Draw 32% | Baltika 35%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Baltika 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 60% | Baltika 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 33% | Draw 32% | Baltika 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.25 / Baltika 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.048 / def 0.936 | Baltika attack 1.109 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Baltika (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Baltika xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Baltika.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 33% chance of winning, Baltika a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Baltika?
Record (2 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 0 | Baltika 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Baltika in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Baltika (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (1.05) and Baltika's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
33%
3.05
32%
3.10
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.55
1.30
Baltika xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.30 for Baltika, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baltika's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Baltika, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Krylia Sovetov on 2.33 PPG, Baltika on 2.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Krylia Sovetov's scoring rate against Baltika's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Baltika in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Baltika
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Baltika in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Baltika have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Krylia Sovetov or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Baltika in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Baltika have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
3
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Baltika?
From 5 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Baltika have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Krylia Sovetov at 67%, Baltika at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Krylia Sovetov) and 67% (Baltika).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Baltika in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Baltika?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 67% of Baltika's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 67% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Baltika tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baltika in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Baltika share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov and Baltika finished level at 1-1 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.25 xG and Baltika 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Baltika attack 1.11 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 33% | Draw 32% | Baltika 35%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 33%, Baltika 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Baltika's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 2.33 PPG, Baltika 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Krylia Sovetov managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Baltika managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.