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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Spartak Moscow 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat Spartak Moscow 2-1 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.69 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.12 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.10 / defence 0.81 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.21 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 49% | Draw 28% | Spartak Moscow 23%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 54%, Spartak Moscow 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 2.23 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights