FC Krasnodar 0-3 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as FC Krasnodar welcome Spartak Moscow to Stadion FK Krasnodar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Stadion FK Krasnodar this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion FK Krasnodar. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Spartak Moscow have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 2.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. FC Krasnodar's 30% rate and Spartak Moscow's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for FC Krasnodar, 3 for Spartak Moscow and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with FC Krasnodar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Krasnodar in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 50% versus Spartak Moscow 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 44% | Spartak Moscow 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.57 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.370 / defence 0.644 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.003 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.277. FC Krasnodar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Krasnodar's defence rating of 0.644 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 FC Krasnodar games / 46 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Spartak Moscow 5.88. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 30% | Spartak Moscow 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.57 / Spartak Moscow 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.370 / def 0.644 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.003 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Spartak Moscow xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
FC Krasnodar 0 - 3 Spartak Moscow.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 52% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
Record (7 meetings): FC Krasnodar 4W | Draws 0 | Spartak Moscow 3W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.25
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.40
0.82
Spartak Moscow xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
4%
28.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.82 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 46 games, going 27W 13D 6L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spartak Moscow sit at 1.76 PPG from 46 outings (23W 12D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Krasnodar on 2.04 PPG, Spartak Moscow on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 17W 3D 2L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.04 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Spartak Moscow have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.54 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Spartak Moscow in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 27W 13D 6L in their last 46 games (2.04 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 23W 12D 11L in their last 46 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Spartak Moscow away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.45 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.27 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2022, when Spartak Moscow won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Krasnodar
0
Draws
4
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 6, Spartak Moscow have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Spartak Moscow 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 41%, Spartak Moscow 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Krasnodar) and 36% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 36%; Spartak Moscow in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 41% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 36% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Krasnodar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat FC Krasnodar 0-3 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.57 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.82 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Krasnodar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.37 / defence 0.64 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 17%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Spartak Moscow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 44%, Spartak Moscow 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 2.04 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.