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Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Rubin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat Rubin 1-0 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.90 xG and Rubin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Krasnodar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rubin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Rubin attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 55% | Draw 26% | Rubin 19%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 55%, Rubin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rubin's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights