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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Rubin 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat Rubin 2-1 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 2.21 xG and Rubin 0.87 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.26 / defence 0.81 against Rubin attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 66% | Draw 22% | Rubin 12%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 46%, Rubin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Rubin's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights