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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lokomotiv defy the odds to beat FC Krasnodar 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokomotiv beat FC Krasnodar 1-2 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.68 xG and Lokomotiv 1.03 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lokomotiv outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Lokomotiv attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 29% | Lokomotiv 21%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Lokomotiv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 61%, Lokomotiv 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Lokomotiv's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.81. Form was overturned, with Lokomotiv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights