FC Krasnodar vs Lokomotiv – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Krasnodar's attack at 1.24x the league average against Lokomotiv's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lokomotiv's attack (1.25x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.05
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
3.45
1.37
Lokomotiv xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
3%
34.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Lokomotiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Lokomotiv expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.37 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Lokomotiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.