FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov meet at Ozon Arena in Premier League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
FC Krasnodar's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Krasnodar's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Krylia Sovetov's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the 10 H2H matches in our data, FC Krasnodar have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Krylia Sovetov managing 1 and 4 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 10 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Sep 2026, ended FC Krasnodar 2–2 Krylia Sovetov — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FC Krasnodar and goals — 5 wins from 10 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 59% versus Krylia Sovetov 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 57% | Krylia Sovetov 48%). Note also that Krylia Sovetov surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while FC Krasnodar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.53 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.306 / defence 1.034 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.135 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.251. FC Krasnodar carry an above-average attack rating of 1.306 — their 1.53 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from FC Krasnodar's last 44 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 44.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 38% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.61 | Draw 3.79 | Krylia Sovetov 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (FC Krasnodar 5 wins from 10 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Krasnodar's last 10 home games and Krylia Sovetov's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 10 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Krasnodar 70% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Ozon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 38% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG FC Krasnodar 1.53 / Krylia Sovetov 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.306 / def 1.034 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.135 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Krylia Sovetov xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Ozon Arena.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Ozon Arena.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 38% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (1.14x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from FC Krasnodar's last 44 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.79
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
3.00
1.47
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.47 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 44 games, going 27W 11D 6L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.14 PPG from 44 outings (12W 14D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 16W 3D 2L across their last 21 home games, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 21 away games (3W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.23 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
FC Krasnodar (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 27W 11D 6L in their last 44 games (2.09 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 12W 14D 18L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.43 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.71 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won Krylia Sovetov 0-6 FC Krasnodar on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Krasnodar
4
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Krasnodar have won 5, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Krylia Sovetov 2-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 57%, Krylia Sovetov 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Krasnodar) and 52% (Krylia Sovetov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 48% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Krasnodar's matches and 52% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 76% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.