🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 19, as FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.65 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.01 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 49% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 20%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 44%, Krylia Sovetov 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights