FC Krasnodar 3-1 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Krasnodar host Khimki at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar at Stadion FK Krasnodar this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Khimki have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khimki have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, FC Krasnodar have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Krasnodar have won 0, Khimki 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Krasnodar in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Khimki in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 56% versus Khimki 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 51% | Khimki 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.86 xG and Khimki 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.974 / defence 0.963 | Khimki attack 0.936 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.275. Data: 39 FC Krasnodar games / 39 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 53% | Draw 25% | Khimki 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Khimki 4.55. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 60% | Khimki 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 53% | Draw 25% | Khimki 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.86 / Khimki 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.974 / def 0.963 | Khimki attack 0.936 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Khimki xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Khimki kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Khimki kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
FC Krasnodar 3 - 1 Khimki.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Khimki part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 53% chance of winning, Khimki a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Khimki?
Record (2 meetings): FC Krasnodar 0W | Draws 1 | Khimki 1W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Khimki in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Khimki (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Krasnodar's attack at 0.97x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.01
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
3.01
1.15
Khimki xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
3%
28.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.15 for Khimki, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, FC Krasnodar have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 19W 10D 10L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khimki's form line: 9W 13D 17L from 39 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Krasnodar are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khimki.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Krasnodar have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, Khimki have gone 3W 3D 13L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khimki's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.15 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Khimki in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 19W 10D 10L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Khimki have gone 9W 13D 17L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Khimki away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 1.95 PPG; Khimki away: 0.63 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Khimki in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Krasnodar and Khimki runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when FC Krasnodar won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Krasnodar
2
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 3, Khimki have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Khimki 2-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Khimki?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 53%, Khimki 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Krasnodar) and 63% (Khimki). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Khimki in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 53% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Krasnodar's matches and 63% of Khimki's.
Do FC Krasnodar and Khimki tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Khimki in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Krasnodar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Khimki 3-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.86 xG and Khimki 1.15 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Krasnodar beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Khimki attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 53% | Draw 25% | Khimki 22%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 51%, Khimki 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Khimki's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.