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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-1 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 2.22 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.82 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.47 / defence 0.99 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.77 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 69% | Draw 19% | Dinamo Makhachkala 12%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 57%, Dinamo Makhachkala 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights