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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out CSKA Moscow 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat CSKA Moscow 3-2 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.63 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.77 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Krasnodar beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.35 / defence 0.80 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 56% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 16%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 53%, CSKA Moscow 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 2.21 PPG, CSKA Moscow 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights