FC Krasnodar 2-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion FK Krasnodar plays host to FC Krasnodar versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 10 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Krasnodar have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar's home record at Stadion FK Krasnodar: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for FC Krasnodar, 1.80 for CSKA Moscow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: FC Krasnodar 2W, CSKA Moscow 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with FC Krasnodar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 52% versus CSKA Moscow 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 33% | CSKA Moscow 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 0.94 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.880 / defence 0.810 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.144 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.386. Data: 33 FC Krasnodar games / 33 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 26% | Draw 32% | CSKA Moscow 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | CSKA Moscow 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Krasnodar 50% | CSKA Moscow 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 26% | Draw 32% | CSKA Moscow 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Krasnodar 0.94 / CSKA Moscow 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.880 / def 0.810 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.144 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.28
CSKA Moscow xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar 2 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow part of?
FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 26% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
Record (6 meetings): FC Krasnodar 2W | Draws 2 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.14x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
26%
3.91
32%
3.14
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.23
1.28
CSKA Moscow xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.8 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.28 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, FC Krasnodar have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 16W 11D 6L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 14W 13D 6L from 33 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for FC Krasnodar against 1.67 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Krasnodar have posted 2.25 PPG from 16 outings (11W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 5W 8D 3L from 16 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.94 scored and 1.24 conceded. CSKA Moscow's attacking output running into FC Krasnodar's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow in 67%.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 16W 11D 6L in their last 33 games (1.79 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 14W 13D 6L in their last 33 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or CSKA Moscow away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.25 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.44 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
3
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 4, CSKA Moscow have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FC Krasnodar 3-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 44%, CSKA Moscow 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (FC Krasnodar) and 56% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 62% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 56% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Krasnodar defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat CSKA Moscow 2-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 0.94 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.28 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Krasnodar beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.88 / defence 0.81 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.14 / defence 0.80, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 26% | Draw 32% | CSKA Moscow 43%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Krasnodar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 33%, CSKA Moscow 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.79 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.