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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Krasnodar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Akhmat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat Akhmat 3-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.58 xG and Akhmat 0.71 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Krasnodar beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.16 / defence 0.76 against Akhmat attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 56% | Draw 30% | Akhmat 14%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 44%, Akhmat 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Akhmat's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights