🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Khimki edge out Rubin 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khimki beat Rubin 3-2 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.47 xG and Rubin 1.31 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Khimki beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Rubin attack 0.99 / defence 1.16, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khimki 39% | Draw 29% | Rubin 32%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 46%, Rubin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khimki's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Rubin's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Khimki winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khimki (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Rubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights