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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Khimki and Akron share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 26, as Khimki and Akron drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.25 xG and Akron 1.16 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Akron outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.83 / defence 1.23 against Akron attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khimki 35% | Draw 33% | Akron 31%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 48%, Akron 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khimki's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Akron's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khimki 0.92 PPG, Akron 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akron (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights