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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out FC Rostov 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat FC Rostov 0-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 0.87 xG and Zenit 1.35 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Rostov fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Zenit attack 1.12 / defence 0.68, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 22% | Draw 33% | Zenit 45%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 59%, Zenit 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Zenit's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights