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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Rostov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat FC Rostov 0-3 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.20 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.03 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Rostov fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.99 / defence 0.79, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 36% | Draw 36% | Spartak Moscow 28%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Spartak Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 62%, Spartak Moscow 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.46 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights