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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov beat Rubin 2-0 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 0.93 xG and Rubin 0.96 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Rostov beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rubin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.74 / defence 1.14 against Rubin attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 31% | Draw 35% | Rubin 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual FC Rostov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 40%, Rubin 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Rubin's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.21 PPG, Rubin 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights