FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Rostov at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rodina Moskva travel to Rostov Arena to take on FC Rostov in Premier League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Rostov stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
FC Rostov's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Rodina Moskva have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Rodina Moskva have posted 2W 0D 6L from their last 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
FC Rostov carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, FC Rostov have won 1, Rodina Moskva 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 6.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 31 Jul 2026, ended FC Rostov 4–2 Rodina Moskva — a FC Rostov win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Rostov in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rodina Moskva in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 43% versus Rodina Moskva 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 57% | Rodina Moskva 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.47 xG and Rodina Moskva 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 0.902 / defence 0.826 | Rodina Moskva attack 0.622 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.251. Rodina Moskva's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Rostov's projected output up. Rodina Moskva's attack rating of 0.622 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from FC Rostov's last 44 games and Rodina Moskva's last 14.
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 56% | Draw 29% | Rodina Moskva 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 1.78 | Draw 3.49 | Rodina Moskva 6.60. The model has a clear lean to FC Rostov (56%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Rostov's last 10 home games and Rodina Moskva's last 8 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Rostov 30% (last 10 home games) | Rodina Moskva 38% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 56% | Draw 29% | Rodina Moskva 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG FC Rostov 1.47 / Rodina Moskva 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 0.902 / def 0.826 | Rodina Moskva attack 0.622 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Rodina Moskva xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva FAQs
What time does FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva kick off?
FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Rostov Arena.
Where is FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva part of?
FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 56% chance of winning, Rodina Moskva a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FC Rostov and Rodina Moskva will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Rostov's attack rating (0.90) and Rodina Moskva's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rodina Moskva's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Rostov's last 44 games and Rodina Moskva's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 2-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
56%
1.78
29%
3.49
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.12
0.64
Rodina Moskva xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
3%
28.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Rodina Moskva expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.64 for Rodina Moskva, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Rostov come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 4D 5L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Rodina Moskva sit at 0.86 PPG from 14 outings (3W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
FC Rostov carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Rodina Moskva — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Rostov's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across their last 6 home games, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — FC Rostov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rodina Moskva have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 6 away games (1W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Rostov are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Rodina Moskva are on 1.07 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Defensively: FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Rodina Moskva
Blended
FC Rostov (Home) vs Rodina Moskva (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Rostov
Blended
Rodina Moskva
Blended
❓ FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva Form FAQs
What form are FC Rostov and Rodina Moskva in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while Rodina Moskva have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Rodina Moskva away?
FC Rostov's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.83 PPG; Rodina Moskva away: 0.50 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or Rodina Moskva been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Rodina Moskva in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 1 H2H match we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2026. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
FC Rostov
0
Draws
0
Rodina Moskva
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Rodina Moskva?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, FC Rostov have won 1, Rodina Moskva have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Rodina Moskva last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Rodina Moskva 2-4 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Rodina Moskva?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodina Moskva are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Rostov 33% BTTS, Rodina Moskva 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC Rostov) and 50% (Rodina Moskva).
On the defensive side: FC Rostov keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Rostov have failed to score in 33% of games; Rodina Moskva in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Rodina Moskva away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Rostov and Rodina Moskva matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 33% of Rodina Moskva's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Rostov and Rodina Moskva matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Rostov's recent games and 50% of Rodina Moskva's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Rostov and Rodina Moskva matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 67% of Rodina Moskva's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.