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Shock result as FC Sochi defy the odds to beat FC Rostov 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sochi beat FC Rostov 0-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.45 xG and FC Sochi 0.87 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Rostov fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.75 / defence 0.95 against FC Sochi attack 0.84 / defence 1.27, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 51% | Draw 27% | FC Sochi 23%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FC Sochi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 19%, FC Sochi 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Sochi's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with FC Sochi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sochi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights