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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Orenburg defy the odds to beat FC Rostov 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Orenburg beat FC Rostov 0-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 0.99 xG and FC Orenburg 0.95 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Rostov fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.68 / defence 0.96 against FC Orenburg attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 35% | Draw 32% | FC Orenburg 33%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual FC Orenburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 36%, FC Orenburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Orenburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with FC Orenburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Orenburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights