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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokomotiv cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Rostov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokomotiv beat FC Rostov 1-3 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.02 xG and Lokomotiv 1.24 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lokomotiv outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.73 / defence 0.97 against Lokomotiv attack 1.23 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 29% | Draw 32% | Lokomotiv 39%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 39%, Lokomotiv 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Lokomotiv's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. FC Rostov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights